netactr

US search query volume is predicted to grow at 12-13% CAGR rates through 2010, the Worldwide volume - at almost double these rates (23% CAGR). Interestingly, Paid Search revenue is expected to grow faster than volume, driven by increases in RPM (revenue per 1000 queries) due to increases in ad inventory (e.g. better ad coverage). Here’s a compilation of volume growth research from a number of sources.

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Assumptions
(1) Morgan: Morgan uses SRPV (Search Related Page Views) for forecasts which is different from Distinct Searches. In 2005 the ratio of search result pages viewed per distinct search query was approximately 1.8. I converted Morgan’s SRPVs into DSs using that ratio.
(2) Piper Jeffrey: U.S. and International search query volume CAGR of 12% and 23% (2006-2011) respectively

Notes

• Morgan: Searches are driven by increased user base, broadband penetration, improvements in relevancy, and search becoming a primary means of accessing information.
• Morgan: US Internet user base grows at 2-5% five-year CAGR for 2005 - 1010, broadband penetration to reach 60-70% during this time.
• Piper Jeffrey: Globally there are more than 550 MM searches performed daily on the Web = 200.750B/Y = 16.729B/M (End of 2006)
• Piper Jeffrey: Internet users in the United States perform about 245 million searches per day = 89.425B/Y = 7.452B/M (End of 2006)
• Piper Jeffrey: In the next five years Europe and Japan will increasingly gain significance for the Internet companies, while China and India may well dominate the markets in the next decade or so.